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  posts and threads related to

LTE:  Long Term Evolution from 3G to 4G

l

 

3G

 

4G

              How new technologies may increase InterDigital's earnings

 

Posts here updated through July 27, 2009

Most recent posts are by:  frobinso, gejebr3, sinnet14, olddog967, JimLur, mickeybritt, Data Rox, gatticaa, revlis, Bill Dalglish, Gamco, lastchance, rmarchma, and ed ferrari.

A question on many InterDigital investors' minds is this: "OK, once InterDigital licenses ALL the 3G cell phones, isn't that as much income as the Company can expect going into the future. Wouldn't I be wise to take my profits and sell all my IDCC shares as soon as IDCC has maxed out on 3G licensing, perhaps quite soon?  Good question!  The posts here help deal with that. For example: Even after everyone who is going to own one has bought a cell phone, the market is shifting to include not only person to person wireless devices (eg cell phones) but also person to machine, and the very promising market of machine to machine. Machines communicating with each other wirelessly (in the same house or plant) or externally, (e.g. the utility company with your electric or water meters, your security system and you or the police/fire). This use of wireless communicattions is just getting started. Might this be an even bigger market than cell phones?  OR, how about InterDigital using its millions of "treasury shares" or bought back shares - or their hundreds of millions of dollars of cash on hand to buy out firms with key patents in LTE (who may not be big enough to fight for royalties, like IDCC has had to do). These acquired patents could provide extra licensing fees to InterDigital!

InterDigital's patented air interface technology is essential to all current standards for 3G, ensuring royalties many years to come. But there are many proposals for radically enhancing current 3G (e.g. TDD, WiFi, MIMO, WLAN, OFDM, HSDPA, HSUPA, MIH, mesh networks, and  steerable antennas), or possibly even replacing existing 3G standards for some applications. LTE or long term evolution is the generally accepted name for this evolution from 3G to whatever "4G" becomes. Thus "LTE" is probably a more accurate term that "4G."

Standards for various parts of what 4G is likely to be, however, are already maturing into worldwide standards, as in IEEE 802.16 and 802.21.

Even these standards, however, are at best, in early release form, with substantial refinements yet to come. Although early pieces of what will likely become 4G are already being implemented, it is the convergence of all the advanced wireless technologies into one device which will combine immense capacity, breakneck speed, and complete mobility -- and thus become 4G.

REMEMBER, LTE long term evolution DOES NOT REPLACE 3G, it adds to it. Therefore licensees may be required to pay additional fees when 4G/LTE is included

either in an original license or subsequent renewals. At the time of renewals of 3G licensing contracts, additional LTE/4G licensing fees may be negotiated. This would likely result in greater revenue and earnings for InterDigital. Therefore the share price could grow substantially, even after all 3G devices are originally licensed by InterDigital.

Just how lucrative might the LTE/4G royalties and licensing fees be?  Immediately below is important info provided in an IHub posts 263134, 263791 and 263792 by Data Rox. Listed here are the royalties/fees sought by InterDigital's competitors for  use of their patented 3G PLUS LTE (4G) technology. Reports consistently acknowledge that altho InterDigital is a relative small firm, they have more LTE patents than most of their very large sized competitors.

The information here can give the potential investor an idea of how InterDigital's earnings can continue to grow substantially in the coming years

What IDCC competitors are saying about their LTE (4G) licensing rates

These licensing fees generally reflect fees for licenses that include both patented 3G and LTE/4G technology required in standards.

Additional patented technology not required by standards, but deemed useful by the licensee, may require additional fees.

 

In most cases, multi-mode LTE or WiMax devices that also implement 3G CDMA standards will be covered by Qualcomm’s existing 3G CDMA license agreements. As previously communicated to the industry, with respect to multi-mode LTE/3G CDMA devices and WiMax/3G CDMA devices, Qualcomm expects that it will not charge a royalty rate on such multi-mode devices for use of both Qualcomm's standards essential LTE and/or WiMax patents and standards essential 3G CDMA patents that is greater than Qualcomm's standard 3G CDMA royalty rate, subject to certain standard terms and conditions.

http://www.qualcomm.com/common/documents/licensing/LTE-WiMax_Patent_Licensing_Statement.pdf

 

Nokia expects Nokia’s rate for devices that deploy LTE as the only wireless communication standard to be in a range of 1.5 % from the sales price of an end-user device. To avoid unfavorable effects of royalty stacking, Nokia will not charge royalties higher than 2.0 % from the sales price of an end-user device for IPR that is essential to wireless communication standards irrespective of the number of wireless standards deployed in such a device.

Ref. http://www.nokia.com/press/ipr-information/statement/nokia-licensing-policy-on-long-term-evolution-and-service-architecture-evolution-essential-patents

Ericsson said all of its LTE agreements will be made according to Ericsson's proportional share of the standard IPR that relates to the relevant product category. Ericsson likewise honors the same industry practice by ensuring a maximum cumulative rate on LTE technology not exceeding a single-digit rate. Ericsson´s fair royalty rate for LTE is therefore expected to be around 1.5 % for handsets.
Ref. http://www.telecomseurope.net/content/ericsson-licenses-lte-technology
http://www.ericsson.com/technology/licensing_programs/

Nortel will charge about 1 % of sales for use of its LTE patents, which is less than the 1.5 % rate another manufacturer has announced, Danny Locklear, Nortel’s director of global wireless marketing.

Ref. http://www.itworldcanada.com/a/Daily-News/eb183512-5a9a-433f-ba1a-cbe6cf69dc31.html

 

Huawei believes it will hold 15-20% of all essential patents relate to LTE standard, therefore, a royalty rate with some flexibility, but not to exceed 1.5 %, is expected.

Ref. http://www.huawei.com/ipr2.do

ZTE will license its LTE essential patents for mobile communication terminals with a maximum 1 % from the sales price of an end-user device. However, ZTE will not be restrained to this amount, if ZTE is involved in any licensing negotiations. While in multi-mode terminals, ZTE will follow similar principle in setting the royalty rate for LTE essential patents, which will be determined in bilateral negotiation.

Ref. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36813653

 

Motorola expects that its essential patent royalty rate for LTE systems and equipment (e.g. infrastructure and subscriber handsets) will be approximately 2.25 %.

Ref. http://www.motorola.com/content.jsp?globalObjectId=8827

  WL editor: Based on a 1Q 2009 conference call transcript (link below) it appears that InterDigital will negotiate each licensing contract individually. Terms for per unit contracts may be different than with fixed fee contracts vis a vis whether 4G/LTE licensing is included with 3G licensing fees. InterDigital will try to negotiate deals that exclude 4G/LTE unless there is an additional fee for that included in the deal. Contracts are for limited periods and renewals may have higher licensing fees is 4G/LTE is included with future 3G licending. contracts.

  http://seekingalpha.com/article/136222-interdigital-q1-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

above ©2009 TechIPm, LLC All Rights Reserved
http://www.techipm.com/

Thanks, Data Rox!

 

As new technologies jockey for positions, which of them strengthen and which could weaken InterDigital's long term position in the industry? The IHub posts below  deal with that question.. If the sample posts here are helpful, consider regularly reading the IHub InterDigital board, moderated by Jim Lurgio. The editor of WirelessLedger.com believes that board is one of the very the best on the Internet for stock investors.

Also see these other related WirelessLedger reports:

An Introduction to Wireless Telecommunications for Non-Techie Investors

Understanding Intellectual Property
Understanding the Standards-Setting Process
30 Year Evolution of InterDigital's Business Model

is your

most comprehensive source

for investor research on

LTE  Long Term Evolution from 3G to 4G

How may new technologies increase InterDigital's earnings?

POSTS and THREADS (from I Hub)
(generally most recent are first below)

  Editor's note: The Investors Hub Message Board on InterDigital offers hundreds of helpful new posts every day on everything related to IDCC. Visit it daily! If you don’t have time to read all the fine posts there, you can catch some of the highlights here by way of these “best posts.” But there are ten or twenty times more posts worth reading at iHub than can be reproduced here.

Graphics/formatting added to some posts for clarity by WirelessLedger.com

 

Posted by: sloane6
Date: Monday, August 03, 2009
In reply to: Gamco who wrote msg# 264792
Post # of 264799

Can you send this to wirelessledger? Or anybody else.

(WL editor: YES  see below)

Posted by: Gamco
Date: Monday, August 03, 2009
In reply to: sloane6 who wrote msg# 264790
Post # of 264796

sloane6 - Who would have thought...one News item quoting 2 from IDCC and 1 from Ericsson...

Robert Wuestenenk, director of broadband networks at Ericsson

Naresh Soni, InterDigital's vice-president of strategic engineering

Jack Indekeu, director of corporate marketing at InterDigital

And...just where are those folks from "yesteryear" that believed that Ericsson would sign before Nokia! LOL

http://www.itweb.co.za/sections/telecoms/2009/0908031036.asp?A=TEL&S=Telecoms&T=News&O=S

Wireless takes the next step     (WL ed: IDCC logo aded to story)

BY LEZETTE ENGELBRECHT , ITWEB JUNIOR COPY WRITER

[ Johannesburg, 3 August 2009 ] - The future of wireless technology may see a “network of networks” emerging, allowing people uninterrupted access to services when roaming across different radio access technologies.

This development, predicts wireless provider InterDigital, will lead to a “mega network transparent to the users”.

Jack Indekeu, director of corporate marketing at InterDigital, says the wireless industry is not just about voice anymore. “As the market matures and there is more bandwidth available, new services and applications are emerging. It's a different environment with many new players.”

According to Indekeu, the wealth of opportunities for innovation means even companies not traditionally associated with wireless technology, such as IBM, Google and Intel, are moving into the space. “This is because, one, they can't afford not to, and two, because they recognise the potential in the new game.”

Research from Informa Telecoms & Media predicts mobile broadband subscribers will represent nearly one-third of total mobile subscribers worldwide by 2013.

Robert Wuestenenk, director of broadband networks at Ericsson, says the move to mobile for business is about time to market, as companies can enter the mainstream market without having to roll out extensive infrastructure.

“We live in a society of instant gratification. People are not willing to wait for a service anymore,” says Wuestenenk.

Need for speed

One of the most significant developments in the industry is long-term evolution (LTE), the next step in 3G wireless technology, which provides enhanced speed and capacity.

According to industry body 3GPP, all-IP LTE provides four times the throughput compared to HSDPA, using the same amount of spectrum. It enables streaming video, voice-over-IP, video conferencing, and content downloads on mobile phones at fixed broadband speeds.

Wuestenenk explains that LTE offers data transfer rates of 41Mbps, going up to 100, 200 and even 300Mbps. “If you look at it in relation to the highest available bandwidth in SA, it's about 15 times faster. So instead of waiting two seconds for a page to load, it will take milliseconds.”

In a move that demonstrates the investments being made in this next-generation technology, Ericsson recently acquired Nortel's wireless assets for $1.13 billion. “We're capitalising on the work already done and [Nortel's] R&D expertise,” says Wuestenenk. “LTE is mature enough already; Ericsson is deploying a network in Sweden, which should go live in the last quarter of the year.”

Naresh Soni, InterDigital's vice-president of strategic engineering, says 4G will replace the broadband technologies of today but also function alongside them. “There is going to be a network of networks for high-definition applications, 3G for low band voice, with an overlay of 4G over 3G networks.”

He adds that handover technologies will increasingly allow users to roam across interfaces, moving seamlessly between 2G/3G, WiFi, WiMax, and LTE.

Wuestenenk agrees: “As technology evolves, the handoff between 2G, 3G, and LTE will become invisible to the end-user.”

But wireless has its limitations, says Wuestenenk, adding that one shouldn't forget about wireline. “There is only so much spectrum and there will crowding of the spectrum in future. So there may be a need for fibre-based technology to provide true broadband.”

Looking ahead

Soni says some of the industry's major challenges include bandwidth, with operators reaching data saturation point and moving towards high bandwidth networks. “For broadband the challenge is latency, so we're evolving to low latency networks,” he adds.

Robert Wuestenenk, director of broadband networks at Ericsson
Wuestenenk says the widespread uptake of LTE is limited at the moment by the availability of handsets. “As mainstream vendors come online to provide handsets and chips for computers, that will drive adoption going forward.”

However, Wuestenenk doesn't see an LTE-dedicated mobile device any time soon. “I don't think we'll see an LTE handset in the short-term, it's more likely that there will be an LTE dongle or a modem because you don't want to watch a full-feature film while walking down the street. It's likely to be more laptop- and home-computer-driven.”

Carriers in countries including Canada, the US, Norway and France have announced plans to upgrade their networks to 4G. Verizon Wireless has said it will introduce LTE selectively in the US later this year, extending its reach in early 2010. Japan's NTT DoCoMo has also committed to rolling out LTE in December 2010.

As higher bandwidth becomes more widely available, InterDigital believes there will be changes in the sources of communication. “In most of the world people connect to people, but the future environment will see people connecting to things and things connecting to things,” says Indekeu.

According to Wuestenenk, as people learn to use technologies, there will be an increase in people-to-machine communication, while services such as e-government, e-banking, and everyday applications will involve more machine-to-machine interaction.

“But communication is still about people, they want to hear a voice. I would say about 95% of telecoms will remain people to people.”

 

Posted by: Gamco

Date: Monday, July 27, 2009 1:11:36 PM
In reply to: Data_Rox who wrote msg# 263792

Post # 263794
Then to paraphrase Mr. Merritt (ed: concerning InterDigital's licensing og LTE/4G) -- from 1Q 2009 conference call):

“...if it's a per-unit license... that's also going to be capable on the 3G network, so, you're going to capture that product within the existing license agreement.... if that device is capable of operating on a 3G network, it doesn't matter that it can also operate on LTE network, it's still a reportable product under those deals. So that's true with respect, you tend to do that with respect your current unit deals”

”...what you do on your fixed price deals, you've done a fixed price deals you try to exclude the LTE capable stock program, but the payment and typically see it on the fixed price deals that include the LTE component.”

Posted by: frobinso

Date: Monday, July 27, 2009 10:13:26 AM
In reply to: gejebr3 who wrote msg# 263746

Post # 263758


gejebr3, I remember his (CEO Bill Merritt) remarks as saying "we try not to" include LTE in our current license negotiations, but I don't know enough about each agreement to see if they had already licensed LTE to some licensees. I always wondered about this following his comment to know if we still have a blank slate w.r.t. LTE licensing?

Posted by: mickeybritt

Date: Monday, July 27, 2009 8:57:07 AM
In reply to: None

Post # 263743

4G

It is almost beyond belief or rather simply amazing, you have Sprint already advertsing 4G, and you have the world knowing IDCC has a HUGE PERCENTAGE of the technology, and that huge percentage will have to be licensed. Has IDCC already licensed any 4G technology as Jim may have suggested that each license agreement is for all the IDCC patents. I don't think that is quite true and the reason I say this is look at the Nokia 2G/3G agreement which if was true then Nokia would have a rate established for 3G in the agreement. It apparently may have licensed the 3G patents but with some language of a rate to be determined later, or why would the agreement be disolved?

I also use the fact that the Samsung has a ending date which means a new agreement will be needed for 4G or so I would think, and I don't think it stated in the agreement that this agreement includes any 4G rate or access, but I am not sure of this, but I can't imagine IDCC whose livelihood depends on getting revenue from each new generation or they would be out of business. I do believe a new 4G license and rate will be required from all.


If I am correct then it should be easy to see IDCC making tons of money even at the lowest so far officially declared LTE rate of 1% which surely IDCC will be entitled to far more than a 1% rate if you use the pie chart, or once again one would think so. How much would a 1% rate generate and then lets double it and say IDCC would get 2% which should be very reasonable I think again based on percentage of ownership of essential patents.

If the market is looking for the future then they have only to look at IDCC. The kind of bad thing is it looks like the next generation of IDCC will be the big winners as so many of my generation of believers either went broke, or died, or will be to old to really enjoy the benefits of the profits from their investment. I do know IDCC will definitely be a big time stock if LTE is adopted and apparently that is a given.

JMO
Mickey

 

Posted by: gejebr3 Date: Monday, July 27, 2009
In reply to: mickeybritt who wrote msg# 263743

Post # 263746
re Samsung/LTE - Merrit specifically said LTE was not included in the new license agreement - during the last (May) conference call Q&A I think.

 

Posted by: revlis

Date: Sunday, July 26, 2009
In reply to: None

Post #263729

Rumor: Verizon Racing to Get 4G LTE Network Up for Q1 2010 iPhone and iTablet Launch?!

http://www.theiphoneblog.com/2009/07/26/rumor-verizon-racing-4g-lte-network-q1-2010-iphone-itablet-launch/


Posted by: revlis

Date: Sunday, July 26, 2009
In reply to: JimLur who wrote msg# 263723

Post # 263724


Jim,

I disagree entirely with the below opinion. There is no hurry. First IDCC has to finish up with 3G. I would let Merritt decide when it is the right time to negotiate LTE license agreements. None of us have all the facts he has.

mo

"getting close to time for IDCC to make public their proposed licensing rates for LTE only products"

 

Posted by: JimLur

Date: Saturday, July 25, 2009
In reply to: None

Post #263716


Good budy , Very interesting comments from your link

http://www.thedeal.com/corporatedealmaker/2009/07/nortels_patent_portfolio_a_clo.php

"But the list of 21 companies who have made LTE declarations does give a sense of who is present in the space and who (because they're absent, but active in wireless) might be interested in Nortel's portfolio.

Most of the names you'd expect (for example, China's Huawei Technologies, No. 3 with 147 patents) are on the list. Nortel declares 45 LTE patents, while Nokia Siemens weighs in with 31.

As for intriguing absences, one of them is RIM. Another is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), maker of the iPhone. A third is a lesser-known company that Van Dyke says he's heard mentioned as another potential buyer of the patents: Taiwanese handset maker HTC Corp.

If any of these companies were interested, it would be for cross-licensing purposes. But there are firms out there who mainly live on licensing income, and who might be interested in the patents for the royalties they could generate. The one to watch here is InterDigital Inc. (NASDAQ:IDCC), also mentioned by Van Dyke as a possible buyer. As it happens, InterDigital tops the ETSI list of LTE patent declarations, with 249."

Posted by: sinnet14

Date: Friday, July 24, 2009
In reply to: Data_Rox who wrote msg# 263134

Post # 263704


Seems that IDCC dominates in the specifications TS36.300.
What is it all about?

Also what's the difference between issued patents and published applications?

 

Posted by: olddog967

Date: Friday, July 24, 2009
In reply to: sinnet14 who wrote msg# 263704

Post # 263707


sinnet: In regard to patents vs published patent applications, here is a good answer to the same question

Questions from readers…published patent applications vs. patents
by Stephen M. Nipper.

This morning I received a question via email.

I was wondering: what is the difference between a Published Patent Application and Patent. What longevity does a Published Application has before considered expired?

Good questions.
A pending patent application is typically kept secret. However, currently (unless you request otherwise) all patent applications are “published” 18 months (or earlier if you request early publication) after they are filed IF they are still pending. By being “published,” a pending patent application is laid open for public inspection (the public can see what was filed). Thus, a “published application” is a patent application that has been pending for 18 months and the Patent Office has “published” or made available to the public a printed copy of the application as filed.

A patent, on the other hand, is a grant of rights from the government giving you the right to exclude others from making, using or selling an invention. A patent is…an issued patent application. You cannot infringe a patent application, you can only infringe a patent.

>What longevity does a Published Application have before considered expired?

Published Applications don’t expire because they are not “enforceable” (you can’t infringe a patent application).

Again..good questions.

A related question is “why would you want the public to know the contents of your ’secret’ patent application via publication?” The answer is that changes to the US patent laws a few years back allow a patentee (the patent application must mature into a patent) to recover a reasonable royalty for not only the period of time AFTER issue, but also the period of time BETWEEN the date the patent application was published and the date the patent issued (provided that a number of other factors are met). The current “average” pendency of a patent application which matures into a patent is 27-28 months. Thus, theoretically, one could obtain an additional 9-10 months of back royalties from an infringer by having your application published.

http://inventblog.com/2004/12/questions_from_.html


n regard to what TS36.300 is all about, it is the air interface for LTE. The official title is:

3GPP TS 36.300
Evolved Universal Terrestrial Radio Access (E-UTRA) and Evolved Universal Terrestrial Radio Access Network (E-UTRAN); Overall description; Stage 2

http://www.3gpp.org/ftp/Specs/html-info/36300.htm

Here is a nice simple explanation from wikipedia.

Evolved Universal Terrestrial Radio Access (E-UTRA) is the air interface of 3GPP's Long Term Evolution (LTE) upgrade path for mobile networks. E-UTRA is the successor to HSDPA and HSUPA technologies specified in 3GPP releases 5, 6 and 7. Unlike HSPA, LTE's E-UTRA is an entirely new air interface system, unrelated to and incompatible with CDMA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-UTRA

Data could probably give a more detailed explanation, including how it relates to IDCC.


Posted by: JimLur

Date: Monday, July 20, 2009
In reply to: mickeybritt who wrote msg# 263240

Post #263266

Mickey, I agree with you that the pie chart looks good but we need to know how many of those patents are essential to 4-G?

Posted by: Data_Rox

Date: Monday, July 20, 2009
In reply to: mickeybritt who wrote msg# 263240

Post #263260 of 263396


mickey - as I mentioned I think it would be best to wait before trying to conjure up a number.....but I would not use that graph alone by ANY means to create the number. It's a different game.

Posted by: mickeybritt

Date: Monday, July 20, 2009 2:13:19 PM
In reply to: Data_Rox who wrote msg# 263235

Post #263240

 

Data_Rox

A reasonable response but based on your pie chart IDCC should be the top dog in 4G or LTE, and surely should get the highest rate of them all one would think.

If IDCC doesn't declare a higher rate than QCOM then someone needs or a lot of someones needs to be replaced at IDCC especially if QCOM is able to attain their declaration rate.

As for disappointments you don't know how many times I have been dissappointed and how much my believing what they said cost me. I was filthy rich but Goldberg had me convinced that Warren Bufffet would be replaced by Mickey Britt WRONG.

I also asked in my earlier post about modem sales, can you enlighten or anyone enlighten how this will apply to IDCC and what kind of revenue will it bring to IDCC and through who?

JMO
Mickey

 

Fig 1  3GPP LTE essential patent candidates by assignee

InterDigital is the large green portion of the pie chart

Posted by: gatticaa

Date: Monday, July 20, 2009
In reply to: sjaym who wrote msg# 263271

Post #263272

Qualcomm puts royalty rate at 3.25 % for LTE patent licensing.

When it's not being tied to chip sales i guess that'll do it.

Is there a guess out there as to the LTE part of qcom/nokia?

I wonder how much LTE discussion is being done by IDCC/nokia right now...if any.

 

Posted by: revlis

Date: Monday, July 20, 2009

In reply to: None

Post #263246

http://www.top10.co.uk/mobilephones/news/2009/07/4g_mobile_phone_network_coming_to_japan/

4G mobile phone network coming to Japan
20th July 2009 by Jonathan Leggett

Japanese technology firm NTT DoCoMo plans to push ahead with a 4G mobile phone network, it has been confirmed.

The company’s chief executive Ryugi Yamada confirmed its plans to deploy the Long-Term Evolution (LTE) technology in an interview in the Financial Times.

The news means that Japanese mobile phone owners will benefit from super fast internet access and downloads as early next year.This promises to transform the way that consumers use their mobile phones and consume media.

Tests have shown that 4G networks could be capable of delivering speeds of up to 300Mb, meaning that users could expect to download movies in a matter of seconds.  DoCoMo has consistently been ahead of the curve with mobile phone network technology, having launched its 3G network back in 2001.

Meanwhile, earlier this LG, which offers a range of internet enabled phones including the LG Cookie KP500, unveiled a new 4G modem chip that it claimed can speed up mobile phone downloads by up to eight times from the current maximum of 7.2Mb.

Posted by: Bill Dalglish

Date: Monday, July 20, 2009
In reply to: Gamco who wrote msg# 263221

Post #263225


Gamco: Helpful 4G info. How does IDCC fare as some of these technologies are accepted and some decline in acceptance?

e.g. Should IDCC shareholders cheer LTE gains but not WiMAX gains?

Do we have any indication from IDCC on which of which of these 4G routes they are most strong?

Gamco or anyone?

Bill

RE your post (I've added some bolding and new paragraphs to aid in reading):

2009 Predictions: A Mid-Year Reality Check
Jul 20, 2009 10:01 AM, By Peter Jarich

As I write this, the Tour de France is going into its first rest day and baseball fans in the U.S. are eagerly awaiting the MLB All-Star Game. Even if you’re not a big sports fan, the implication is obvious – we’ve entered July and the middle of another year.

So, in that spirit, I wanted to take a trip down memory lane and revisit our thoughts on 2009 and wireless networks and wireless infrastructure from way back in January.

LTE Goes (barely) Commercial.

What We Said: With operators planning initial deployments in 2009, vendors will need to live up to their promises of commercial LTE availability in the latter part of the year; given the fact that many currently base station platforms will supposedly support LTE operations, it should be hard to hit this mark.

How Things Look: Right on cue, vendors spent this year’s trade shows talking up their LTE radio access and core products. Some even took a broader purview – highlighting solutions that included transport, applications, voice, etc. In reality, however, commercial LTE product availability is stretching into Q4 or 2010 for many vendors, suggesting that “barely” is the operative word on the prediction, something that could easily slip.

WiMAX Takes a Beating. WiMAX Vendors Take To LTE.

What We Said: The [WiMAX] focus on fixed and portable applications will continue in 2009…leading to press and analyst reports proclaiming the demise of the technology. Where silicon vendors have talked up an ability to support both WiMAX and LTE, system vendors will follow-suit

How Things Look: The imminent arrival of LTE combined with yet another major vendor pullback from WIMAX (Nokia Siemens Networks) has done little to help the image of the technology. Across the board, as large wireless vendors reposition their support for WiMAX, a tighter focus on LTE has been quoted as the rationale. Smaller WiMAX specialists, however, have been relatively quiet on their plans to move into the LTE space. Of course, it’s always seemed improbable that smaller vendors (coming from a fixed-wireless legacy) could compete for LTE wins – though TD-LTE may play to their strengths in terms of technology and customer size given the dribs and drabs of underutilized TDD spectrum available worldwide.

802.16m – At Last.

What We Said: 2009 should be the year we hear more about the standardization and commercialization of 802.16m. More importantly, by promising an evolution, 802.16m could help convince operators that mobile WiMAX truly delivers investment protection – potentially driving WiMAX uptake (particularly if LTE stalls).

How Things Look: While vendor wrangling and intellectual property issues will make a convergence of WiMAX and LTE difficult (at best), some have begun talking up the potential – suggesting that 802.16m is the right venue for this work. Beyond that, however, the industry has been remarkably silent on the standard. Where vendors have already begun highlighting their LTE-Advanced R&D, the same isn’t really true for 802.16m (even Alvarion has gone relatively silent on its SentieM solution). Where the WiMAX Forum has announced new members and deployment momentum, news on success with 802.16m has been absent. To keep momentum rolling, it’s understandable that the industry would not want to focus too much to future capabilities. To drive the long-term viability of the technology, however, 802.16m progress (sooner, rather than later) is still critical.

3G Evolutions – Market and Technical.

What We Said: HSPA will grow into HSPA+, following on 2008’s trials and initial sales announcements. At the same time, WCDMA (with HSPA from the start) will also evolve to tackle new markets and move deeper into emerging markets as system and device scale (and years of cost-cutting R&D) make it possible to target these markets and voice/data efficiencies make it a logical scenario.

How Things Look: China’s getting 3G. India’s gotten 3G – and will get more when auctions get underway…joining 2009 deployments in markets such as Uzbekistan, Angola, Indonesia, etc. HSPA+, meanwhile, has been overshadowed by LTE. A handful of commercial launches plus 25+ commitments signal that momentum hasn’t been stymied. Unfortunately, Ericsson – alone – seems to be driving HSPA+ thinking from a vendor perspective, suggesting either that the technology’s success is a foregone conclusion or that other vendors are still weighing their commitments against LTE R&D.

Lagging CDMA Enhancements.

What We Said: EV-DO and DORA will continue to deliver the capacity and throughput needed to power many mobile data services. Operators around the world will continue to rely on the 3GPP2’s technologies. To keep these operators happy, CDMA evolutions have been designed: EV-DO rev. B and CDMA200 1X Enhanced. As a way to grow end-user data rates or voice efficiencies, they make sense. They’re, also, unlikely to get deployed in 2009.

How Things Look: China Telecom’s decision to trial EV-DO rev. B. was big news. Following KDDI’s commitment and trials from Moroccan operator WANA, the prospects are clearly looking up for the technology. Yet, while voice-enhancing 1X upgrades are almost certain to see the light of day (if only because the best way to deliver voice over LTE still remains a mystery) new questions from Verizon surrounding the longevity of EV-DO suggest that enhancements to the technology may not get the global support hoped for.

Femtocells get Real, get Apps.

What We Said: 2009 looks to be ripe with launches and service expansions. Given the availability of cheap voice services and solid 3G coverage in many of these markets, operators will need to find new ways to market the value of femtocells, suggesting that the focus on femto-based applications will pick up steam.

How Things Look: Verizon has launched its service. Sprint has contracted for 3G femtocells. Vodafone has launched commercial femtocell services in the UK. AT&T promises a launch this year. 2010 may still be the year that sees femtocells get deployed more broadly, but 2009 has seen the technology move forward. Few operators look to be launching with applications at the center of their strategy, but they should (even using WiFi to learn about the demand and test out applications) and the Femto Forum’s “Services” special interest group makes two things clear: market demand for applications is real; the market is getting ready to deliver solid application support.

Muni WiFi Remains Under The Radar.

What We Said: As the value of metro-scale WiFi for municipal uses (meter reading, public safety, etc.) and public access is further proven, new deployments and expansions will continue into 2009 – but the limited scale of these launches will keep it out of the news.

How Things Look: Muni WiFi launches have continued this year; with Tropos in Venice; with Motorola in Osaka; with BelAir and Guest-Tek. Launch investigations have also been running hot, with RFI/RFQ work reported from many cities and municipal organizations. Regardless, the biggest news this year on the mesh front is likely the gradual movement of mesh solutions to support 802.11n – with major new launches being few and far between. Of course, with market-leader BelAir announcing little more than hospitality and venue wins and Tropos still seeking new funds, a new focus on technology vs. momentum is understandable.

Apps Focus.

What We Said: Always ready to tap operator demands and the revenue opportunity they represent, wireless network vendors will redouble their efforts at delivering mobile data applications. The impending arrival of more mobile broadband bandwidth, combined with devices that can take advantage of it, will make the focus more relevant than ever.

How Things Look: Nominally, the focus on mobile applications has been strong this year, depending on your definition of “application.” On the voice front, voice (and SMS) over LTE has taken center stage as an industry concern. On the IMS front, RCS seems to be gaining traction. On the advertising front, mobile ad deals for Alcatel-Lucent (E-Plus) and Ericsson (Telia Sonera) suggest that operators are getting serious about non-traditional revenue sources. Yet, if Alcatel-Lucent’s leadership with the ng Connect initiative is encouraging on the application front, the fact that few other vendors have been so vocal is worrying.

Green, Green, Green.

What We Said: Operators looking to use green as a selling point with customers will want to get a jump on competitors, beating them to the punch and establishing themselves as socially conscious service providers. Perhaps more importantly, regulation (or the fear of it) will keep the focus on green high…this means that green marketing will need to move beyond product-level messages.

How Things Look: Green marketing continues to be a central component of vendor messaging – whether it’s new base station power efficiencies or new shelters than can keep cooling and heating costs down. There can be no doubt, however, that the focus on sustainability has moved beyond product marketing; vendors and operators are partnering with international organizations like the WWF to set out green guidelines; vendors are building out sustainability-oriented professional services; the ITU has begun work on calculating the climate impact of the ICT industry. Against this backdrop, Huawei’s messaging about the ultimate importance of energy efficiency might seem dated. Since power consumption (and the OpEx it implies) will have the greatest impact on the environment and is likely what matters most to operators, it’s not a dated message at all.

http://telephonyonline.com/commentary/contributed/2009-wireless-predictions-0720/?cid=hcom

Posted by: lastchoice

Date: Thursday, July 09, 2009
In reply to: Bill Dalglish who wrote msg# 262347

Post #262359

VoLTE shouldn't effect idcc. firstly, lte itself will take years to hit critical mass, and during that time, all LTE will have 3g, too. WM said that in the recent call.

also, whatever travels over LTE, which in the long run will be strictly packets, is all good to idcc. the thing about voice, is that it's extremely low data, but has latency issues--you don't want to hear strange pauses... it has been said for a decade, that voice is free on a packet network because it can just be inserted into the blank spaces. that's the holy grail of cellular--LTE all-IP, all-the-time. presumably, idcc is busy developing widgets to facilitate better service.

Posted by: Bill Dalglish

Date: Thursday, July 09, 2009
In reply to: Gamco who wrote msg# 262346

Post # o262347

Gamco: how could this voice-over-LTE affect IDCC?

Thanks!

Bill Dalglish

Your post:

Voice over LTE faces deployment issues
Posted: 10 Jul 2009

The Voice-over-LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA) Forum has published the second version of its architecture specifications in an effort to introduce an alternative way to deliver voice services over LTE networks.

The group says it is now close to its goal of creating a new set of specifications that will be ready for submission to the 3G Partnership Project (3GPP) standards body by the end of the year.

The VoLGA development is at the heart of a divisive issue for mobile operators as they plan LTE deployments.

The problem is that LTE, as an all-IP mobile broadband technology, does not support legacy circuit-switched voice and SMS services, and operators are undecided about the best way to deliver these services.

Thus, the 3GPP standards body has envisioned that this functionality would be solved by the use of IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) architecture. Unfortunately, this is taking longer to roll out than was originally envisaged.

There are three distinct ways to deliver voice services over LTE: IMS, which, as noted, may be too immature to rely on for early LTE services; Circuit-switch (CS) fallback, in which the 2G or 3G networks are relied on for voice services; and circuit-switch-over-packet, where the CS voice or SMS traffic is tunneled over LTE.

VoLGA is one option for the CS-over-packet approach, along with various proprietary solutions.

Some of the challenges facing the operators are outlined by Heavy Reading senior analyst Gabriel Brown in a recent column: Voice Over LTE & the 'IMS Gap'.

The Forum, comprising a group of handset and equipment vendors, joined forces in March to promote the technology. The initiative was led by T-Mobile International, who, unfortunately, remains the only operator publicly to have backed the effort so far.

T-Mobile International has been arguing that LTE needs to support voice services from the start. The operator said that since LTE is supposed to give operators the most spectrally efficient networks, it would only make sense to put all traffic on that network and not rely on less efficient 3G networks. Such support, the operator argues, would also entice manufacturers to make LTE phones that will be more appealing to consumers than dongles and data cards.

And Kineto Wireless, one of the initiative's backers, pointed out in a recent blog that a lack of native SMS over LTE is set to doom even LTE dongle services because operators rely on SMS for back office, customer care, provisioning and management of HSPA-based dongle services.

The same systems need to be available for LTE dongle and data card services at launch, Kineo insits.

Other backers include heavyweights such as Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Huawei, LG Electronics, Motorola, Samsung, Starent and ZTE.

The biggest absentee on the network equipment OEMS' side is Nokia Siemens Networks, which is understood to be developing its own proprietary solution.

The big worry for the industry is that operators will adopt different approaches for voice-over-LTE services, which would threaten the industry's biggest sources of service revenue generation—voice and SMS.

The Forum hopes to have the third stage of the specifications completed before the end of the year so that, with enough industry and operator support, VoLGA can be submitted to the 3GPP for a work item in Release 10 of the standard body's specifications work.

http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800578233_499488_NT_bf467e4f.HTM

- John Walko
EE Times-
Gamco

Posted by: lastchoice

Date: Wednesday, July 08, 2009
In reply to: revlis who wrote msg# 262209

Post #262240

very cool. another sign that people will eventually own a multitude of LTE modems. wristwatch phone, smartphone, pc, ipod, car radio, etc... power meters? soda machines?

hell, they should put a repeater in the roof of every car.

 

Posted by: revlis

Date: Wednesday, July 08, 2009
In reply to: revlis who wrote msg# 262208

Post #262209

http://www.v3.co.uk/v3/news/2245585/orange-launch-lg-watch-phone

Orange to launch LG Watch Phone in August

Dick Tracey device rumoured to cost a cool £1,000
Ian Williams, V3.co.uk 07 Jul 2009

The long-awaited LG Watch Phone will hit the UK in August, courtesy of mobile operator Orange.

The LG GD910 was originally announced in December last year, and showcased at this year's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. The tiny device features a 1.43in touch-screen display, and comes with a Bluetooth headset to avoid having to rely on the inbuilt speaker.

LG has included voice dialling to avoid having to type out numbers or contacts on the small screen.

Orange said that the Watch Phone will be available for a limited period, at an "exclusive" price point on a pay-as-you-go tariff, but has not confirmed what that price will be. Rumours surfaced in February that the device would cost as much as £1,000.

"The Watch Phone is the must-have gadget of 2009. It's handcrafted, exclusively limited, and will turn heads on the high street," said Tom Alexander, chief executive at Orange UK.

The LG device is just the first of a range of innovative multimedia phones from Orange, according to Alexander, and the company is set to unveil at least three more high-end devices before the end of the year.

"We have secured some of the most original and innovative devices available. The Watch Phone is the first of these, all focused on bringing a 21st century experience to our 21st century customers," he said.

Orange has not yet specified the exact date of the Watch Phone launch, nor whether the device will be available on contract.
Permalink: http://www.v3.co.uk/2245585
www.v3.co.uk/2245585

 

Posted by: Gamco

Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2009
In reply to: revlis who wrote msg# 261096

Post #261099

Satellite launch will lead to wider AT&T coverage

By Stephen Lawson
Created 2009-06-23 03:21 PM

AT&T Mobility should achieve true nationwide coverage by the end of this year after it introduces a planned service that utilizes both satellite and cellular service.

The carrier will resell satellite service and phones from TerreStar Networks, a startup that is set to have its first satellite launched on July 1. TerreStar is developing hybrid satellite/cellular handsets designed to be about the same size as a conventional smartphone.

TerreStar's satellite will sit 22,000 miles above North America and provide service across the U.S. and Canada, including Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Using licensed 2GHz radio spectrum, it will provide voice service as well as data at approximately 64K bits per second, said TerreStar Chief Technology Officer Dennis Matheson.

AT&T will resell that service in a hybrid offering, aimed initially at local, state and federal governments, Matheson said. The carrier will also resell the handsets, though not initially in its retail stores. The handsets will switch between satellite and 3G (third-generation) coverage as users roam in and out of cellular coverage areas. TerreStar is still working on a resale deal with a Canadian carrier.

Satellite phones have the advantage of working essentially anywhere across a region of the world, but the market has been limited by large handsets and high prices for devices and service. TerreStar is taking advantage of SDR (software-defined radio) chips coming from Infineon and Qualcomm to integrate satellite capability into the same processors that handle cellular connectivity. This will help the company match the size of other smartphones and eventually bring the cost of its handsets down to that of a BlackBerry, Matheson said. Qualcomm's work should lead to a satellite and CDMA (Code-Division Multiple Access) phone, which might allow for a future hybrid service from Verizon or Sprint Nextel.

The first handset, which will use separate cellular and satellite chips, will cost about US$700 without a carrier subsidy. That compares with an unsubsidized cost of about $400 to $500 for a typical BlackBerry, according to Matheson. The cost should match the BlackBerry as volume grows, he said. Pricing of the satellite service will be up to the service provider but should be lower than today's going rate of about $1 per minute for satellite calls, according to TerreStar. AT&T officials were not immediately available for comment.

Although most populated areas of the U.S. have some form of cellular coverage, there are still large patches that do not. Also, satellite service could help people who live within network range but go outside it for business or pleasure, Matheson said. For example, a hybrid phone would allow for emergency calls from a car broken down anywhere in the country, he said. The service works anywhere outdoors, or indoors near a window, according to the company.

A phone based on the Infineon SDR is likely to become available toward the end of 2010, and Qualcomm's SDR is expected in 2010 or 2011, according to Matheson. TerreStar wants to offer connectivity to laptops, netbooks and machines as well as handsets. Client gear for those devices will probably come out after the SDRs become available. Machine-to-machine communications eventually could be a big reason to use hybrid cellular/satellite service, Matheson said. Uses might include monitoring of pipelines and electrical grids.

That's where TerreStar is most likely to build a profitable business, according to Yankee Group analyst Phil Marshall. Among consumers, it will be a niche product with startup costs that demand high-volume revenue, he said.

Although technically they can be programmed for many different types of networks, SDRs won't radically change the economics of the handset industry, Marshall said. Most will be programmed for standard wireless technologies, so the cost of tuning one for satellite will remain high, he said.

TerreStar's major investors are Harbinger Capital Partners and satellite TV company EchoStar Technologies. Its satellite cost about $300 million and took about four years to develop and build, according to Matheson. Barring delays, some time after 12:12 p.m. Eastern time on July 1, the craft will be launched into geosynchronous orbit on an Arianespace Ariane 5 ECA rocket from the European Space Agency Spaceport in French Guiana.

http://www.infoworld.com/t/platforms/satellite-launch-will-lead-wider-att-coverage-806
Gamco

 

Posted by: gatticaa

Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2009
In reply to: Data_Rox who wrote msg# 261088

Post #261092

Right. Great find.

Data, Gamco, on page 8, that actual thing in a box "802.21 MIH client" on the applications processor is(or can be) a software download not an actual chip installed with the code written on it.

I'm never sure how the MIH will work "as a product" with IDCC other than patent chasing.

http://www.interdigital.com/images/id_pubs/InterDigitalMIHWhitePaper_Apr09.pdf

If this us, how much is this going to be worth? Plus if this is us we are right out there on the leading edge.

Posted by: Data_Rox

Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2009
In reply to: Gamco who wrote msg# 261084

Post #261088

Good find Gamco

Here is a link that was embedded in yours

http://9to5mac.com/ATT-802.21-protocol-wifi-3G-apple-iphone

AT&T using 802.21 for iPhone 3G-Wifi handoffs?

Wed, 06/17/2009 - 14:45 — Seth Weintraub2012
It looks like AT&T might be using the 802.21 protocol to relax the pressure put on their 3G network by the iPhone. The new iPhone 3.0 OS software contains the ability for iPhones to autoswitch from 3G to Wifi when an AT&T Wifi network is in range, without user intervention.

Today AT&T made a statement saying they would allow "seamless transition from their 3G network to any one of their 20,000 Wifi wireless hotspots". While the IEEE protocol wasn't stated, it is likely the way that the iPhones will switch back and forth between 3G and Wifi.

 

There is always the possibility that they are doing "dumb handoffs" as well which would just be like when a normal iPhone enters an area which a recognized network is present. The iPhone finds the network, knows the password and switches over.

802.21 is an IEEE emerging standard. The standard supports algorithms enabling seamless handover between networks of the same type as well as handover between different network types also called Media independent handover (MIH) or vertical handover. The standard provides information to allow handing over to and from cellular, GSM, GPRS, WiFi, Bluetooth, 802.11 and 802.16 networks through different handover mechanisms.

AT&T's press release:
AT&T* today announced it will support auto-authentication for iPhone OS 3.0 users connecting to AT&T Wi-Fi Hot Spots. Auto-authentication allows iPhone users to seamlessly switch from AT&T’s 3G network to an AT&T Wi-Fi Hot Spot without being prompted.

AT&T customers with qualifying iPhone data plans have unlimited access to the nation’s largest Wi-Fi network — more than 20,000 U.S. AT&T Wi-Fi Hot Spots.
The new process eliminates the previous two-step authentication, making it easier and faster for iPhone customers to connect to AT&T Wi-Fi. Auto-connect is established once a customer connects their iPhone to an AT&T Wi-Fi Hot Spot the first time.

The addition of auto-authentication for iPhone users comes at a time when Wi-Fi usage continues to experience rapid growth, driven by the proliferation of Wi-Fi enabled devices. More than 4 million connections were made at AT&T’s U.S. Hot Spots with smartphones, including the iPhone 3G, in the first quarter of 2009 alone.

AT&T is a leading provider of Wi-Fi enabled smartphones, and includes Wi-Fi access at no extra charge with qualifying AT&T High Speed Internet plans, 3G LaptopConnect plans and select smartphone plans.

“Auto-authentication makes it even easier for iPhone customers to stay connected on the nation’s fastest 3G network and the nation’s largest Wi-Fi network,” said Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO, AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets. “With access to our U.S. hotspots, customers are receiving a great value, with a fast, reliable broadband connection virtually anywhere, through 3G or Wi-Fi.”

The new auto-authentication process is available starting today to all existing iPhone and iPhone 3G customers who download the free iPhone OS 3.0 software update via iTunes. It will also be available to all iPhone 3G S customers once that product goes on sale on June 19. Meanwhile, all iPhone customers can continue to get AT&T Wi-Fi access with the current authentication process.

AT&T’s Wi-Fi network complements its wired broadband and wireless 3G networks with Wi-Fi hotspots including retail stores, restaurants and airports from coast-to-coast.

Posted by: Gamco

Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2009
In reply to: Data_Rox who wrote msg# 261088

Post #261090

This is a 2006 IDCC presentation for 802.21:

http://idcc.securesites.net/images/id_pubs/3G_LTE_IQPC_Presentation_INTERDIGITAL_v1_0.pdf
Gamco

 

Posted by: Gamco

Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2009
In reply to: None

Post #261084

AT&T using 802.21 for handoff of iPhones to Wi-Fi?

AT&T may be adapting a new protocol to relieve pressure on its 3G network, reports say. The 802.21 protocol may be responsible for the new prompt-free process of automatically transitioning an iPhone from 3G to one of AT&T's Wi-Fi hotspots. The technology is designed to switch to and from cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, 802.11 and 802.16 networks using handover algorithms.

Whether or not it uses 802.21, the process is being called "auto-authentication" by AT&T and eliminates the previous two-step process of switching between networks. The feature becomes available once the iPhone 3.0 firmware is downloaded. The upgrade was released through iTunes on Wednesday.

http://www.macnn.com/articles/09/06/18/att.iphone.handoffs/

Gamco

Posted by: revlis

Date: Monday, June 15, 2009
In reply to: sloane6 who wrote msg# 260446

Post #260447


Q. How does “Kindle” (downloading of books and newspapers) affect IDCC?

A. (IDCC CEO) Bill Merritt – this is a precursor of what is the future. It is all about data not voice and is what the IDCC modem is targeting.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38417713&txt2find=kindle

 

Posted by: rmarchma

Date: Friday, May 15, 2009
In reply to: ed_ferrari who wrote msg# 257867

Post #257902


Ed re IDCC's 4G MIMO and LTE patents you said:

...."I agree with Jeffrey. While IDCC obviously has essential patents for LTE, IMO they are not as strong as Qualcomm, Nokia, or Samsung:"

If you mean "not as strong" in absolute terms, then I can agree with your statement based upon the data you furnished in your referenced post. However if one considers in relative terms, then IDCC beats Q, Nokia, and Sammy by a very large margin. To add some relative size data to the discussion, let's consider today's market caps of the four companies as follows:

QCOM = $67.9B = 56.6 times larger than IDCC's market cap
Nokia = $53.2B = 44.3 times larger than IDCC's market cap
Samsung = $64.4B = 53.7 times larger than IDCC's market cap
IDCC = $1.2B

Now let's combine the number of MIMO patents and LTE patents from your referenced data as follows:

QCOM = 308 = 5.1 times more than IDCC's 4G patent number
Nokia = 174 = 2.9 times more than IDCC's 4G patent number
Samsung = 252 = 4.1 times more than IDCC's 4G patent number
IDCC = 61

Therefore, QCOM is 56 times larger than IDCC, but only has slightly over 5 times more 4G patents. This gives IDCC a multiple of 11 times or 1,100% more 4G patents than QCOM on a relative size basis. Nokia is 44 times larger than IDCC, but has slightly less than 3 times the number of 4G patents. This gives IDCC a multiple of 15 times or 1,500% more 4G patents than Nokia on a relative size basis. Samsung is 53 times larger than IDCC, but only has slightly more than 4 times the number of 4G patents. This gives IDCC a multiple of 13 times or 1,300% more 4G patents than Samsung on a relative size basis.

 

 

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